Global Market
$5.81B
▼3.3% vs 2023
🌍
EU Import Share
55.7%
of global imports
🇪🇺
Best EU Retail (Discounter)
€0.69/kg
Lidl Spain
🏆
Most Expensive Market
€2.20/kg
Nordic premium chains
📈
EU Price Gap
219%
cheapest → premium
📉
📤 Top Exporters to EU
by value 2024
📥 Top EU Importers
by value 2024
⚡ Active Supply Alerts
3 Critical🔴 Critical
Red Sea / Houthi Attacks
Suez route severely disrupted. Egypt–EU transit +14 days, +$600/container. Most carriers via Cape of Good Hope.
🟡 Climate
Mediterranean Drought 2024-25
Sicily, Calabria, Spain below 5-yr yield averages. Reduced domestic EU supply pressures import dependency.
🔵 Regulatory
Argentina Black Spot Rejections
Citrus black spot quarantine pest. Shipments blocked/destroyed at EU ports. Compliance certification critical.
📊 EU Producer Price Trend
€/100kg · Nov 2024 – Feb 2025
Supermarkets Tracked
62
across 20 EU countries
Lowest Price Found
€0.49/kg
Lidl Spain (promo)
Highest Price Found
€2.99/kg
Organic Nordic chains
Data Updated
Feb 2026
Numbeo, FreshPlaza, EC
🛒 Orange Retail Prices by Supermarket Chain & Country
Standard 1kg · all prices in EUR · Discount = Aldi/Lidl/Biedronka · Premium = Full-service chains · Sources: Numbeo Dec 2025, EC Agriculture, FreshPlaza, Industry reports
| Country | Chain | Type | 🏷 Discount | 🏪 Standard | ⭐ Premium | 🌿 Organic | Avg Retail | vs EU Avg | Source |
|---|
📦 Detailed Chain Breakdown by Country
Click a card for full details · Prices: standard navel orange 1kg unless noted
World Export Price
$999/t
▲6.6%
World Import Price
$894/t
▼7%
EU Producer Avg
€0.73/kg
▼9.2% Sep'24
Farm→Shelf Markup
~200%
avg for imports
🛒 EU Retail Prices by Country
Consumer avg · all chains · 2024/25 · EC + Numbeo Dec 2025
| Country | Avg Retail | Discount Chain | vs 2023 | Status | Main Supplier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪Germany | €1.45/kg | €0.99 (Aldi) | ▲3% | Opportunity | Spain, S.Africa, Egypt |
| 🇫🇷France | €1.60/kg | €1.19 (Lidl) | ▲2% | Balanced | Spain, Morocco |
| 🇮🇹Italy | €1.38/kg | €0.99 (Lidl) | ▲8% | Saturated | Domestic, Spain |
| 🇳🇱Netherlands | €1.42/kg | €0.99 (Aldi) | ▼20% | Hub/Importer | Spain (transit) |
| 🇪🇸Spain | €0.79/kg | €0.49 (Lidl promo) | ▼4% | Saturated | Domestic |
| 🇵🇱Poland | €1.02/kg | €0.72 (Biedronka) | ▲2% | Opportunity | Spain, Egypt |
| 🇸🇪Sweden | €1.92/kg | €1.49 (Lidl) | ▲4% | Opportunity | Spain, S.Africa |
| 🇩🇰Denmark | €1.85/kg | €1.39 (Netto) | ▲3% | Opportunity | Spain |
| 🇫🇮Finland | €1.98/kg | €1.49 (Lidl) | ▲5% | Opportunity | Spain, Egypt |
| 🇧🇪Belgium | €1.55/kg | €1.09 (Aldi) | — | Balanced | Spain, NL transit |
| 🇦🇹Austria | €1.48/kg | €0.99 (Hofer) | ▲1% | Balanced | Spain, S.Africa |
| 🇬🇷Greece | €0.89/kg | €0.59 (Lidl) | ▼28% | Oversupplied | Domestic |
| 🇵🇹Portugal | €1.09/kg | €0.79 (Lidl) | ▲22% | Growing | Domestic, Spain |
| 🇨🇿Czechia | €1.18/kg | €0.79 (Lidl) | ▲3% | Opportunity | Spain, Egypt |
| 🇭🇺Hungary | €0.98/kg | €0.69 (Aldi) | ▲4% | Growing | Spain, Egypt |
| 🇷🇴Romania | €0.85/kg | €0.59 (Lidl) | ▲6% | Growing | Spain, Egypt, Turkey |
| 🇱🇻Latvia | €1.80/kg | €1.29 (Lidl) | ▲3% | Opportunity | Spain (via NL) |
| 🇮🇪Ireland | €1.75/kg | €1.19 (Lidl) | ▲2% | Opportunity | Spain, S.Africa |
📦 Producer / Export Prices
FOB · major exporters · 2024
| Country | FOB $/kg | Volume kt | Change | EU Buyers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸Spain | $1.04 | 1,241 | ▼4.6% | DE, FR, NL, PL, UK |
| 🇿🇦South Africa | $0.64 | 1,232 | ▼18.3% | NL, DE, UK, FR |
| 🇪🇬Egypt | $0.47 | 718 | ▲7.4% | NL, DE, RU, FR |
| 🇺🇸USA | $1.49 | 351 | ▼2% | DE, UK |
| 🇲🇦Morocco | $0.58 | 185 | ▲84.6% | FR, ES, DE |
| 🇹🇷Türkiye | $0.42 | 210 | ▼52% | DE, NL, AT |
| 🇵🇹Portugal | $0.81 | 95 | ▲117% | DE, FR, UK |
| 🇦🇷Argentina | $0.55 | 82 | ▼32% | ES, IT |
| 🇨🇳China | $0.61 | 145 | ▲106% | Limited EU |
| 🇲🇽Mexico | $0.78 | 110 | ▲61% | Mostly N.America |
📉 Price Trend: EU Producers (€/100kg) · 2024/25 Season
Africa→EU Reefer Rate
$4,200
avg / 40ft container
Cape Rerouting Extra
+$600
Red Sea crisis surcharge
Spain → DE (road)
2–3 days
Cheapest route
Reefer Shelf Life
4–8 wks
3–5°C / 85–90% RH
🚢 Key Routes to EU
Cost, time & risk · 2025
⏱ Transit Time vs Cost Matrix
Origin → Rotterdam / Pre & post Red Sea
| Origin | Route | Normal | Current | Cost/40ft | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇸 Spain (Valencia) | Road / RoRo | 3d | 3d | €1,200 | Very Low |
| 🇲🇦 Morocco | RoRo + Road | 5d | 5d | €1,800 | Low |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt (Alexandria) | Med+Suez⚠️ | 12d | 28d | $3,800 | High |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | Cape of GH | 18d | 26d | $4,400 | Medium |
| 🇹🇷 Türkiye | Black Sea/Road | 8d | 10d | $2,200 | Medium |
| 🇺🇸 USA (Florida) | Atlantic | 14d | 14d | $3,600 | Low |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | S. Atlantic | 21d | 21d | $5,200 | Medium |
🌍 Geopolitical & Trade Risks
🔴 CRITICAL – ACTIVE
Red Sea / Houthi Attacks
Ongoing since late 2023. Maersk, MSC, CMA-CGM rerouting via Cape of Good Hope. Egypt–EU: +14 days, +$400–800/container. Supermarkets already reflecting higher import costs in Q1 2025 pricing.
🟡 MODERATE
Russia–Ukraine: Black Sea Tension
Turkey serves as neutral hub for Russian market. Russian orange imports growing +12.5% from Egypt, Morocco. Creates competition for EU-bound volumes from these origins.
🔵 REGULATORY
EU Phytosanitary – Argentina Black Spot
Phyllosticta citricarpa (citrus black spot) rejections. Argentina volumes to EU down 32.4%. Full compliance with EU Reg 2016/2031 required. Impacts Lidl/Aldi sourcing diversification plans.
🔵 TRADE POLICY
EU-Morocco Agreement Uncertainty
CJEU ruling on Western Sahara complicates trade. Morocco grew +84.6% to EU in 2024 but legal status uncertain. Carrefour and Lidl France among most exposed retailers.
🌡 Climate & Production Risks
🔴 HIGH
Southern Europe Drought 2024–25
Sicily & Calabria drought cutting Italian yields. Spanish production below 5-yr average. Discount chains (Lidl/Aldi) facing higher procurement costs for Spanish oranges. Prices at Spanish producers up vs. 5yr avg despite volume drop.
🔴 HIGH
Citrus Greening (HLB) – Florida & Brazil
Florida production down ~90% from 1998 peak. OJ at 50-year low globally. Supermarket orange juice prices surging across EU. Lidl, Aldi, Rewe all raising OJ prices significantly in 2024.
🟡 WATCH
South Africa Water Stress
Western Cape / Limpopo drought risk. SA volumes to EU already -26.5% 2024. Albert Heijn, Lidl NL, Jumbo all reporting tighter South African orange availability.
🟢 OPPORTUNITY
Egypt Production Expansion
Nile Delta expansion + desert irrigation. Exports to EU up 71% vs 5yr avg. Aldi and Lidl exploring direct Egyptian supplier contracts to reduce costs by 15–20% vs Spanish sourcing.
📊 Risk Matrix: Probability × EU Supply Impact
| Risk | Probability | Supply Impact | Retail Price Impact | Most Exposed Chains | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sea Escalation | High 65% | High | +15–25% | Any chain sourcing Africa/Egypt | Morocco, Spain fallback |
| Spain Drought 2025/26 | Medium 40% | Medium | +10–20% | Mercadona, Lidl ES, Aldi | Egypt, Morocco diversify |
| HLB spread to Brazil | Low 15% | Low (OJ) | +40%+ OJ | All OJ processors | Local sourcing, supplier diversity |
| EU regulatory tightening | Medium 35% | Medium | +5–15% | Budget retailers, discounters | Supplier compliance investment |
| SA Port Bottlenecks | Medium 45% | Medium | +5–10% | Albert Heijn, Lidl NL | Advance booking, alt origins |
Best Price Gap (DE)
€0.68/kg
Aldi vs premium chain spread
Fastest Growing Origin
Morocco
▲84.6% to EU 2024
Consumer Saving Potential
25–35%
via direct Egypt/Morocco chain
Nordic Premium
+35%
above EU avg retail
🎯 Exporter Market Opportunities
Ranked by attractiveness score
9.2
🇩🇪 Germany Premium
€516M imports. High income. Aldi/Lidl now stocking organic/Fairtrade. Egypt & Portugal fastest growing. Bio segment +22% annually.
8.8
🇸🇪🇫🇮 Nordic Markets
€1.92–1.98/kg avg retail. 100% import dependent. ICA, Coop, K-Market all undersupplied. S.Africa navel variety premium.
8.4
🇵🇱🇨🇿🇭🇺 Central-Eastern EU
Rising middle class. Biedronka, Lidl, Kaufland aggressive expansion. Egypt/Morocco price point fits market. Spain road access 3–5 days.
7.9
🇬🇧 Post-Brexit UK
Imports ▲5.4% in 2024. New trade agreements possible. Lidl, Aldi, Tesco, Sainsbury's all actively sourcing directly. €1.58/kg avg retail.
7.2
🇷🇺 Russia (High Risk)
+12.5% imports 2024. EU sanctions = gap for non-EU exporters. Currency/payment risks high. Not recommended for EU-based operators.
7.5
🏭 EU Processing Sector
OJ at 50-year low. Bulk/processing grade from Egypt, Morocco highly competitive. Dutch and German juice processors actively contracting.
💡 Consumer Value Strategies
How to get best prices to EU consumers
💰 Strategy 1
Egypt Direct → Northern EU Discounters
Egypt FOB $0.47/kg + shipping $0.08 + cold chain $0.06 = ~$0.61/kg landed. At current Aldi/Lidl margin of 40%, retail = €0.88/kg. Currently sold at €1.20–1.45. Direct contracts could save 25–35%.
💰 Strategy 2
Morocco as Med Gateway for Eastern EU
Morocco ▲84.6% to EU 2024. Tanger Med port expansion = capacity. Biedronka/Lidl Poland could price at €0.85/kg retail (vs current €0.99–1.02). Potential 15–20% consumer saving.
🏗 Infrastructure
Rotterdam Hub Optimization
40% of extra-EU citrus transits Netherlands. Albert Heijn, Jumbo & Lidl NL could reduce distribution costs €0.03–0.05/kg by optimizing reefer terminal operations at Rotterdam.
⚠️ Watch
Supermarket Margin Transparency Gap
Farm-gate: €0.47–0.64/kg. Consumer pays €1.40–1.98/kg. Markup 200–320%. Digital price comparison platforms emerging (e.g. idealo.de for groceries). Competitive pressure from discounters helping consumers.
AI Market Analyst
Powered by Claude · Analyzes live orange trade data · Ask any question about EU orange trade
Cheapest oranges for EU consumers
Best EU market for Egypt
Red Sea impact on Germany
Lidl vs Aldi pricing
Morocco → Poland route
Why Italy is expensive
Spain–Germany price gap analysis
Emerging exporter watch list
Ask a question above to get AI-powered market analysis based on live trade data, supermarket pricing, shipping routes, and risk factors for EU orange trade…
📋 Data Sources Used in This Platform
| Source | Data Type | Frequency | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Commission Agriculture | Producer prices | Monthly | EU-27 |
| Eurostat COMEXT | Trade flows | Monthly | EU-27 + partners |
| Numbeo (Dec 2025) | Supermarket retail prices | User-reported | 200+ countries |
| FreshPlaza | Wholesale prices, market news | Daily | Global |
| USDA FAS EU Citrus Annual | Production, imports, OJ | Annual | EU + origins |
| WorldTopExports | Export values, volumes | Annual | 100+ countries |
| IMO / Drewry | Shipping rates, routes | Weekly | Global |
| Fresh-market.info | Wholesale market prices | Weekly | Poland, EU |
| Supermarket leaflets | Promotional prices | Weekly | DE, FR, ES, NL |
⚠️ Data note: Supermarket prices are based on publicly available sources (Numbeo crowd-sourced Dec 2025, supermarket websites, promotional flyers, industry reports). Prices may vary by region, season, and promotion. For live API access to real-time supermarket prices, dedicated data providers such as PriceRunner, Trolley.co.uk, Idealo, or the Open Food Facts API can be integrated.
🔗 How to Get Real-Time Supermarket Data
🔌 API Option 1
Open Food Facts API (Free)
open.openfoodfacts.org — crowdsourced product database with prices from 180 countries. Covers Lidl, Aldi, Carrefour and more. Free, open-source, JSON API.
🔌 API Option 2
Trolley.co.uk / mySupermarket
UK-focused but expanding EU. Real-time supermarket price comparison. Commercial API available. Covers Tesco, Sainsbury's, Aldi, Lidl.
🔌 API Option 3
PriceRunner / Idealo DE
DE/Nordic grocery price comparison APIs. Covers Rewe, Edeka, Lidl, Aldi. Commercial licensing required. Near-real-time data.
🌐 Official Source
EC Agriculture Market Observatory
agriculture.ec.europa.eu — official EU wholesale and producer prices updated weekly. Free, reliable, EU official data. Best for wholesale benchmarking.